Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C6 0xc6cf…44c4 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$124 (+3%) realized +$123 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$864
14 days+$307
30 days+$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$1,115
sports 25% +$1,425
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +81.8% +64.4% 36% 36% +30.9%
≤30d 30 +57.4% +42.4% 37% 37% -2.4%
≤90d 32 +47.5% +33.5% 34% 34% -2.4%
all 32 +47.5% +33.5% 34% 34% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.5% 34% -2.4%
10% +20.7% 34% -11.8%
15% +9.1% 34% -20.3%
20% -1.6% 28% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +129% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$258 vs −$120 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$610
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 39
History coverage65d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $459 $443 −$16 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$243 +474%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $153 +$236 +155%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$251 +246%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$880 +1711%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $358 −$350 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$91 +45%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$565 +276%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$126 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $463 59m
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 2¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 58¢ $101 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $102 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $51 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $353 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $101 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $101 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $153 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.26 · official $610.26 (match) · 68 history records