Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:05:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C6 0xc6ce…8153 other 150 markets active 4h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+5%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%68W / 59L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$19
14 days−$8
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$93
sports 19% −$42
crypto 1% −$8
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -16.8% -24.7% 46% 46% -21.1%
≤30d 42 +7.7% -2.5% 55% 55% +1.8%
≤90d 127 -6.8% -15.7% 54% 50% -5.4%
all 127 -6.8% -15.7% 54% 50% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 50% -5.4%
10% -23.7% 43% -14.4%
15% -31.1% 38% -22.7%
20% -37.9% 29% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses68 / 59
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions23
Markets (closed)127 / 150
History coverage75d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 78¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 50¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+59%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$10 +192%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +85%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $25 +$4 +14%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$7 +130%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $40 +$10 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$8 -81%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 01 $5 +$15 +291%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $5 +$19 +376%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 +$1 +23%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$3 +286%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 13 $19 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $5 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 33h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $9 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.47 · official $94.47 (match) · 286 history records