Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C6
0xc6cd…f8a1
weather · 953 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$9 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$29 · open −$37
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses192 / 522
Open positions43
Markets (closed)714 / 953
History coverage22d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day55.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 43 History 714 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$175
14 days+$286
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+102%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+65%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 13? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 13? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 13? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 43¢ 28¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 48¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$6 +283%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $30 +$12 +40%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 +$12 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$8 +808%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$8 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$19 +461%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $339 +$158 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on June Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$3 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +220%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$4 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$8 +242%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 86% −$130
world 13% +$124
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -3.7% -12.8% 29% 29% +2.0%
≤30d 714 -4.5% -13.6% 27% 27% -10.7%
≤90d 714 -4.5% -13.6% 27% 27% -10.7%
all 714 -4.5% -13.6% 27% 27% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover55.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 27% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 26% -19.2%
15% -29.4% 25% -27.0%
20% -36.3% 25% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.39 · official $51.78 (match) · 1233 history records