Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C6 0xc6cc…6f75 sports 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,441 (+38%) realized +$2,441 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%36W / 35L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$393
7 days+$2,547
14 days+$2,518
30 days+$2,518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$2,566
other 17% −$15
world 1% −$54
crypto 1% −$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 50% +27.6%
≤30d 61 -6.4% -15.3% 51% 49% +26.9%
≤90d 71 -7.6% -16.4% 51% 46% +25.3%
all 71 -7.6% -16.4% 51% 46% +25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 46% +25.3%
10% -24.4% 45% +13.3%
15% -31.7% 38% +2.3%
20% -38.4% 31% -7.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +38% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$35 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,441
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses36 / 35
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage74d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $61 −$43 -71%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $81 +$43 +53%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$69 +135%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$52 +103%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $30 +$5 +17%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$9 +47%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$12 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$32 +105%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $20 +$25 +121%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $61 +$59 +97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$31 +103%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$19 -38%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 +$10 +34%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -46%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $501 +$486 +97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $358 −$353 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$39 -77%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $122 +$92 +76%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$33 +162%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $146 +$78 +53%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$4 -24%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$197 +97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $122 −$120 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$23 -56%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $112 −$79 -70%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $513 +$126 +25%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 79¢ $28 27m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 9¢ $5 37m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 38m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $13 42m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL No 99¢ $123 44m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 57¢ $10 51m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $98 54m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 62¢ $10 58m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 62¢ $10 58m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 67¢ $50 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $20 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $30 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 42¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 81¢ $35 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 88¢ $30 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $10 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $10 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 8h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 80¢ $45 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records