Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:21:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C6 0xc6cb…7926 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$87 (+5%) realized +$80 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate100%24W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$14
sports 36% +$23
politics 13% +$38
tech 8% +$2
crypto 3% +$9
world 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +16.0% +5.0% 100% 36% +1.0%
≤30d 24 +11.2% +0.6% 100% 29% -4.0%
≤90d 24 +11.2% +0.6% 100% 29% -4.0%
all 24 +11.2% +0.6% 100% 29% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 29% -4.0%
10% -9.0% 17% -13.2%
15% -17.8% 8% -21.6%
20% -25.9% 4% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses24 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)24 / 30
History coverage24d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $77 +$5 +6%
Will the announcers say "Mexico" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 13 $77 +$8 +10%
Will Trump say "Citizenship" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +32%
Will Trump say "Hell" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $20 +$15 +72%
Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Radical Left" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $37 +$8 +23%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $38 +$4 +11%
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $114 +$12 +10%
Will Bernie say "Coffee" in Maine? May 25 $5 $0 +11%
Will Bernie say "Nuclear" in Maine? May 25 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bernie say "Tariff" in Maine? May 25 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Bernie say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" in Maine? May 25 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Bernie say "Greed" or "Greedy" in Maine? May 24 $1 +$1 +44%
Will Bernie say "Healthcare" in Maine? May 24 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Bernie say "Healthcare" 4+ times in Maine? May 24 $39 $0 +1%
Will Bernie say "Trump" 5+ times in Maine? May 24 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? May 24 $201 +$4 +2%
Will Bernie say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" in Maine? May 24 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Bernie say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" in Maine? May 24 $144 +$2 +1%
Will Bernie say "Elon" or "Musk" in Maine? May 24 $135 +$2 +1%
Will Bernie say "Middle Class" or "Working Class" in Maine? May 24 $78 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 93¢ $38 36m
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY Yes 96¢ $39 38m
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY Yes 95¢ $39 38m
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY Yes 94¢ $39 38m
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY Yes 91¢ $39 38m
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo BUY Yes 96¢ $39 1h
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 98¢ $5 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 97¢ $40 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 95¢ $38 1h
Will the announcers say "History" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 98¢ $26 1h
Will the announcers say "Mexico" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World SELL Yes 100¢ $41 4d
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor SELL Yes 99¢ $85 4d
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl BUY Yes 97¢ $39 4d
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor BUY Yes 97¢ $39 4d
Will the announcers say "Mexico" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World BUY Yes 96¢ $40 4d
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor BUY Yes 90¢ $37 4d
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor BUY Yes 90¢ $40 4d
Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl BUY Yes 95¢ $38 4d
Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl BUY Yes 93¢ $39 4d
Will Trump say "Citizenship" during Tele-Rallies? BUY No 75¢ $8 5d
Will Trump say "Hell" during Tele-Rallies? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 5d
Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during Tele-Rallies? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 5d
Will Trump say "Radical Left" during Tele-Rallies? BUY Yes 80¢ $36 5d
Will Trump say "Radical Left" during Tele-Rallies? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 5d
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rallies? BUY Yes 89¢ $38 5d
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rallies? BUY Yes 95¢ $39 5d
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rallies? BUY Yes 93¢ $38 5d
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rallies? BUY Yes 83¢ $37 5d
Will Bernie say "Greed" or "Greedy" in Maine? SELL No 99¢ $2 23d
Will Bernie say "Healthcare" in Maine? SELL Yes 99¢ $79 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.48 · official $349.48 (match) · 80 history records