Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6c7…44cd politics 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$761 (+0%) realized +$758 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate22%29W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$1,247per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$904now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$11
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$86
other 36% +$245
sports 12% +$584
economics 3% −$5
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$8
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 60 +1.2% -8.5% 7% 2% -8.9%
all 132 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 8% -9.1%
10% -18.4% 8% -17.8%
15% -26.3% 6% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,688) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$6 · ×7.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$904
Realized+$758
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses29 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,247
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $900 $904 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $808 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $255 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,634 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,407 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,374 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,700 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,967 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,660 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $6,547 −$8 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 03 $490 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 03 $703 +$1 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $1,425 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $2,526 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $1,182 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $3,313 −$4 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $5,086 −$6 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $1,701 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,579 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,700 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,690 −$3 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 06 $1,693 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $3,762 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,617 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 02 $995 +$4 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,177 −$2 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,601 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3,243 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $6,209 −$6 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $3,436 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,159 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,554 −$3 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2,744 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $811 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $812 5h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $807 8h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $808 9h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $255 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $255 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $706 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $707 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $747 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $748 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,195 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,197 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $900 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,358 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,360 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,632 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,634 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,669 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,672 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,670 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,673 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,674 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,676 15d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,698 20d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,700 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,556 21d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,559 21d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,657 22d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,660 23d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,608 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $903.57 · official $903.57 (match) · 427 history records