Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C6 0xc6c5…6f9c other 279 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,112 (+17%) realized +$9,379 · open −$267
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%66W / 200L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2,746now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$5,724
finance 28% +$3,525
other 24% −$3,584
sports 14% −$1,079
economics 1% −$269
crypto 1% −$2
politics 1% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +31.1% +18.6% 38% 38% +104.3%
≤30d 59 +60.5% +45.2% 29% 29% +44.6%
≤90d 253 -11.8% -20.2% 25% 23% -1.2%
all 266 -10.8% -19.3% 25% 23% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 23% +0.2%
10% -27.0% 21% -9.4%
15% -34.1% 19% -18.2%
20% -40.5% 17% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$355 vs −$95 · ×3.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$2,746
Realized+$9,379
Unrealized−$267
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses66 / 200
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions13
Markets (closed)266 / 279
History coverage109d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,500 $1,559 +$59 (+4%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $230 $225 −$5 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $350 $173 −$177 (-51%)
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Ghana 7¢ 6¢ $170 $158 −$12 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $200 $128 −$72 (-36%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $60 $76 +$16 (+27%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-15%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $10 −$30 (-75%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-78%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $61 +$106 +172%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $61 +$75 +124%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $306 +$694 +226%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $204 +$536 +262%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $990 +$1,250 +126%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $80 −$80 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $515 −$275 -53%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $30 +$200 +667%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $200 +$798 +399%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 06 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 05 $103 −$100 -98%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 01 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June Jun 01 $10 −$10 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $160 −$160 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? May 31 $11 −$10 -93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $70 −$70 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 28 $399 −$392 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $102 −$8 -8%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 2 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $254 +$175 +69%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) May 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $135 −$90 -66%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? May 26 $163 +$32 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 25 $6,256 +$1,594 +26%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $20 +$175 +875%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $160 +$2,190 +1369%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $210 +$1,869 +890%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $205 +$2,933 +1431%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 24 $1,221 −$1,200 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $732 +$205 +28%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $115 +$167 +145%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $102 1h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) BUY Ghana 7¢ $41 1h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) BUY Ghana 7¢ $134 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $133 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $61 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $306 26h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $102 27h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $61 27h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $102 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $200 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $204 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 5¢ $60 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $513 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 33¢ $120 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,745.57 · official $2,745.57 (match) · 887 history records