Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6c3…b293 other 130 markets active 20h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$46 (-11%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%72W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$39
sports 12% +$6
weather 12% −$4
crypto 4% $0
world 4% −$1
politics 1% −$1
tech 1% −$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.7% -2.5% 67% 67% -12.3%
≤30d 46 +8.2% -2.1% 61% 57% +0.4%
≤90d 60 -17.0% -24.9% 47% 43% -40.3%
all 125 -9.6% -18.2% 58% 46% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 46% -19.0%
10% -26.0% 34% -26.7%
15% -33.1% 24% -33.8%
20% -39.7% 15% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses72 / 53
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)125 / 130
History coverage248d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? AND Will South Africa w Jun 18 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Libema Open (Doubles): Balaji/Ram vs Bergs/Rinderknech Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 $0 +7%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Hanfmann/Struff vs Doumbia/Gonzalez Jun 08 $1 $0 +38%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +35%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +25%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 $0 -4%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $1 +$1 +76%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 $0 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$3 +53%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 +$11 +567%
Will Cameroon win on 2025-10-12? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 1 Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mallorca win on 2025-10-18? Apr 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? AND Will South Africa w BUY 68¢ $2 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL 94¢ $4 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 42¢ $2 42h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-1 BUY 56¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $3 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY 67¢ $4 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 7d
Libema Open (Doubles): Balaji/Ram vs Bergs/Rinderknech SELL Bergs/Rinderknech 100¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 8d
Libema Open (Doubles): Balaji/Ram vs Bergs/Rinderknech BUY Bergs/Rinderknech 48¢ $1 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 9d
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen BUY Janice Tjen 35¢ $1 9d
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm BUY Jaume Munar 48¢ $1 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 91¢ $6 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 87¢ $3 10d
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Hanfmann/Struff vs Doumbia/Gonzalez BUY Hanfmann/Struff 72¢ $1 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 41¢ $1 11d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 57¢ $1 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 11¢ $1 12d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 12d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $1 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.34 · official $4.34 (match) · 247 history records