Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C6 0xc6c3…61f0 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$28 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$531per market

Trades / day4.3pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$588now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-17.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-8.7%	-17.4%	67%	67%	-9.4%
≤30d	3	-8.7%	-17.4%	67%	67%	-9.4%
≤90d	3	-8.7%	-17.4%	67%	67%	-9.4%
all	3	-8.7%	-17.4%	67%	67%	-9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.4%	67%	-9.4%
10%	-25.3%	33%	-18.1%
15%	-32.5%	33%	-26.0%
20%	-39.2%	33%	-33.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$245 vs −$487 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.01 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$588

Realized+$28

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage2d

Avg bet$531

Trades / day4.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Argentina	65¢	66¢	$294	$296	+$2 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5	Over	65¢	64¢	$294	$292	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$960	+$128	+13%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$598	+$362	+60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$498	−$487	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	65¢	$300	1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$300	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	87¢	$960	10h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$598	21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	45¢	$100	34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	44¢	$98	34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	62¢	$300	40h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $587.94 · official $587.94 (match) · 10 history records