Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6c3…2701 crypto 644 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+2%) realized +$32 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%374W / 268L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$11
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 223 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 56% -11.9%
≤30d 642 -0.4% -9.9% 58% 58% -8.9%
≤90d 642 -0.4% -9.9% 58% 58% -8.9%
all 642 -0.4% -9.9% 58% 58% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 58% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 57% -17.6%
15% -26.4% 57% -25.5%
20% -33.6% 57% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses374 / 268
Open positions1
Markets (closed)642 / 644
History coverage28d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 642 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 55¢ 90¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 264 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.63 · official $1.35 (match) · 1031 history records