Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C6 0xc6c2…1b0d other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,775 (+4%) realized +$2,610 · open −$835
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate75%36W / 12L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$7,635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$204
7 days+$229
14 days+$281
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$1,485
politics 7% −$154
world 4% +$394
tech 4% +$201
economics 2% −$157
crypto 0% +$31
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +28.5% +16.2% 100% 88% +16.2%
≤30d 14 +5.7% -4.3% 86% 64% +2.1%
≤90d 26 +6.4% -3.7% 92% 46% -0.7%
all 48 +12.3% +1.6% 75% 44% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 44% -2.2%
10% -8.1% 25% -11.6%
15% -17.0% 19% -20.1%
20% -25.1% 12% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$127 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$7,635
Realized+$2,610
Unrealized−$835
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses36 / 12
Open positions65
Markets (closed)48 / 113
History coverage286d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 94¢ 93¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+6%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 89¢ 93¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Canva IPO before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 72¢ 70¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $200 $157 −$43 (-21%)
Databricks IPO before 2027? No 84¢ 83¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 56¢ 81¢ $100 $146 +$46 (+46%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 68¢ 90¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No 29¢ 18¢ $200 $126 −$74 (-37%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 96¢ 100¢ $120 $124 +$4 (+4%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 97¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Deel IPO before 2027? No 85¢ 96¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? No 86¢ 93¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 77¢ 82¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Anthropic CEO arrested? No 97¢ 100¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? Jun 27 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 27 $100 +$74 +74%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 27 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $101 +$25 +25%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 19 $101 +$14 +14%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 13 $100 +$7 +7%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $103 −$103 -100%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? May 22 $120 +$9 +7%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 10 $202 +$31 +15%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 02 $200 +$15 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $200 +$17 +9%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Apr 04 $25 +$2 +7%
Maduro exiled to Qatar by March 31? Apr 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $100 +$3 +3%
Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31? Apr 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $100 +$12 +12%
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? Apr 04 $200 +$11 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $300 +$7 +2%
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31? Apr 04 $320 +$39 +12%
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? Mar 09 $100 −$79 -79%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Mar 09 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 09 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 09 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 09 $100 +$194 +194%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $100 +$132 +132%
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $325 −$273 -84%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $200 −$199 -99%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $100 −$96 -96%
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? Jan 06 $300 +$309 +103%
Stripe IPO in 2025? Jan 01 $293 +$38 +13%
Macron out in 2025? Jan 01 $26,000 +$1,934 +7%
French election called by December 31? Dec 20 $120 −$117 -97%
Will Zama launch a token in 2025? Dec 20 $50 −$49 -97%
Bank of England rate cut in 2025? Dec 20 $100 +$123 +123%
Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31? Nov 28 $500 +$200 +40%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? Oct 29 $308 −$302 -98%
Next French confidence vote passes? Oct 29 $100 −$97 -97%
French election called by October 17? Oct 18 $251 +$74 +29%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Oct 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? Oct 06 $100 +$700 +700%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Canva IPO before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $201 1h
Ramp IPO before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $101 1h
Databricks IPO before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $101 1h
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 1h
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $115 1h
Databricks IPO before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $50 1h
Remote IPO before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $50 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $169 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 4d
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $100 6d
Is Earth flat? BUY No 98¢ $100 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 7d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 7d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $101 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $101 7d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $101 7d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $100 7d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,635.08 · official $7,635.10 (match) · 339 history records