Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:26:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6bf…8d94 politics 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$21
other 39% −$15
sports 9% +$7
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 103 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 141 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage133d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $252 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $289 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $350 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $230 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $296 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $250 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $224 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $206 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $188 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $447 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $207 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $414 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $221 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $265 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 09 $237 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $232 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $233 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $222 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $226 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $252 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $261 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $252 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $238 −$2 -1%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $250 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $33 4d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 5d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $40 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $40 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $43 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 12d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 12d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 16d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 17d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $28 18d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $28 18d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 18d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.00 · official $59.00 (match) · 438 history records