Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6bf…6d30 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized −$55 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$23
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$5
sports 28% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -16.6% -24.5% 34% 34% -11.4%
≤30d 36 -18.4% -26.1% 36% 36% -11.6%
≤90d 36 -18.4% -26.1% 36% 36% -11.6%
all 37 -17.2% -25.1% 38% 38% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 38% -10.1%
10% -32.2% 32% -18.7%
15% -38.8% 27% -26.5%
20% -44.8% 16% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$20 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage146d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $72 $96 +$24 (+32%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $89 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $67 +$38 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $94 +$35 +38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 +$53 +67%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $54 +$22 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$23 -46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$47 -67%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 −$17 -76%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$100 +324%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$81 -62%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $50 −$35 -70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$55 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $58 −$57 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$3 -15%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $26 −$2 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$17 -84%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $72 +$30 +42%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $77 +$20 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $43 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $43 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $74 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $59 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $67 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 28h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $94 45h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 45h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 45h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $78 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $18 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $9 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $23 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 13¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $28 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $22 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $7 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $15 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $71 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.95 · official $184.95 (match) · 74 history records