Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6bd…0b58 politics 68 markets active 109d ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,608 (-2%) realized −$3,608 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate63%43W / 25L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,219per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$10,009
politics 25% −$10,500
culture 12% +$440
tech 10% −$3,214
world 2% −$122
sports 0% −$369
finance 0% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 68 -6.1% -15.1% 63% 31% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 31% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 19% -20.1%
15% -30.6% 13% -27.9%
20% -37.4% 7% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$2,101) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$374 vs −$820 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,608
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses43 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage306d
Avg bet$2,219
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 26 $1,287 +$137 +11%
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? Feb 20 $739 +$539 +73%
Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 10 $28 +$2 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 09 $900 −$156 -17%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port Jan 01 $4,205 −$4,205 -100%
Will the New Year’s Eve ball not drop? Jan 01 $4,197 +$8 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 01 $2,101 +$63 +3%
Will Mamady Doumbouya win the 2025 Guinean presidential election? Dec 31 $2,002 +$31 +2%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 31 $9,027 −$9,027 -100%
Brown University shooter arrested by December 31? Dec 31 $455 +$8 +2%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26? Dec 29 $5,441 −$4,541 -84%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out in 2025? Dec 26 $29 +$11 +39%
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is Y Dec 25 $2,663 +$337 +13%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 25 $1,854 +$146 +8%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 20 $14,429 +$103 +1%
Brown University shooter arrested by December 19? Dec 19 $8,597 +$12 +0%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? Dec 17 $20,970 +$2,190 +10%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? Dec 16 $11,637 +$4,145 +36%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18? Dec 16 $1,414 +$68 +5%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22? Dec 16 $3,048 +$166 +6%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 13 $8,255 +$24 +0%
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%? Dec 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 13 $81 −$65 -80%
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 13 $109 −$109 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 11 $6,533 +$1,180 +18%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31? Dec 11 $13,561 +$2,026 +15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 04 $350 +$10 +3%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 04 $3,185 +$16 +0%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15? Dec 01 $4,481 +$397 +9%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 28 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June? Nov 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20? Nov 21 $108 +$142 +131%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Nov 21 $60 −$56 -94%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 22? Nov 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Nov 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Nov 21 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Nov 20 $68 +$5 +7%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 21? Nov 19 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Trump not sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill by November 29? Nov 19 $62 +$7 +11%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 18 $2,049 +$667 +33%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 17 $465 $0 +0%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Nov 16 $597 −$13 -2%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 16 $382 +$83 +22%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $4,539 −$278 -6%
Will Andrew Cuomo drop out? Nov 04 $56 −$54 -97%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 01 $45 +$12 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $92 109d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 109d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 109d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 109d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 109d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 109d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 109d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 109d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $123 109d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 109d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $137 109d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 109d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $998 109d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1,287 115d
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $1,278 115d
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? BUY No 56¢ $739 122d
Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? BUY Yes 95¢ $28 126d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $744 126d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 151d
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port BUY Yes 85¢ $2,163 164d
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port BUY Yes 85¢ $6 164d
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port BUY Yes 85¢ $57 164d
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port BUY Yes 85¢ $26 165d
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port BUY Yes 85¢ $34 165d
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port BUY Yes 85¢ $4 165d
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port BUY Yes 85¢ $85 165d
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port BUY Yes 85¢ $85 165d
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port BUY Yes 85¢ $85 165d
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port BUY Yes 85¢ $28 165d
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port BUY Yes 85¢ $6 165d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 488 history records