Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C6 0xc6bc…eab7 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$228 (+4%) realized +$1,216 · open −$988

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR86%break-even

Win rate86%6W / 1L

Drawdown25%max

Avg bet$764per market

Trades / day11.9pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$2,893now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +86%

net ROI/market (all)+2.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+12.9%	+2.1%	86%	86%	+12.7%
≤30d	7	+12.9%	+2.1%	86%	86%	+12.7%
≤90d	7	+12.9%	+2.1%	86%	86%	+12.7%
all	7	+12.9%	+2.1%	86%	86%	+12.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+2.1%	86%	+12.7%
10%	-7.6%	71%	+1.9%
15%	-16.6%	29%	-7.9%
20%	-24.7%	0%	-16.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$83 vs −$100 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×5.0 per $1 lost it wins $5.0

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2,893

Realized+$1,216

Unrealized−$988

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses6 / 1

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$764

Trades / day11.9

Drawdown25%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	43¢	32¢	$3,881	$2,893	−$988 (-25%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$486	+$164	+34%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams	Jun 26	$322	+$118	+37%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$190	+$58	+31%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$249	+$73	+29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$126	+$25	+20%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$153	+$61	+40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$101	−$100	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World	BUY Yes	37¢	$650	17m
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	95¢	$650	18m
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	70¢	$486	1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World	SELL Yes	42¢	$486	1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World	BUY Yes	46¢	$10	11h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World	BUY Yes	44¢	$3,824	11h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams	BUY	73¢	$322	17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	77¢	$249	19h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	76¢	$190	22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	71¢	$153	22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	83¢	$126	24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	79¢	$101	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,893.11 · official $2,893.11 (match) · 17 history records