Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C6 0xc6b9…de6d sports 569 markets active 0h ago coverage 320d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 320d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,355 (-5%) realized −$7,658 · open +$303
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%215W / 322L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$549est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$4,425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$515
7 days−$5,569
14 days−$3,488
30 days−$1,406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$3,036
culture 28% −$6,001
other 25% +$3,414
politics 8% +$4,048
world 5% −$3,432
crypto 1% −$619
tech 0% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -46.5% -51.6% 22% 22% -52.6%
≤30d 169 -14.9% -23.0% 38% 38% -13.4%
≤90d 266 -6.6% -15.5% 42% 41% -8.5%
all 537 -1.7% -11.0% 40% 39% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 39% -13.5%
10% -19.6% 38% -21.8%
15% -27.3% 37% -29.3%
20% -34.5% 33% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$277 vs −$204 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$4,425
Realized−$7,658
Unrealized+$303
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses215 / 322
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$549
Open positions32
Markets (closed)537 / 569
History coverage320d ⚠
Avg bet$256
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 537 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 86¢ $250 $492 +$242 (+97%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 51¢ $345 $340 −$5 (-2%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 48¢ $355 $272 −$83 (-23%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 48¢ 79¢ $157 $259 +$101 (+64%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 34¢ $210 $234 +$24 (+11%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $240 $218 −$22 (-9%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 48¢ $185 $202 +$17 (+9%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 43¢ 42¢ $190 $188 −$2 (-1%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $90 $181 +$91 (+101%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 54¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $155 $148 −$7 (-5%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 45¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 10¢ 12¢ $120 $136 +$16 (+13%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 42¢ $87 $136 +$48 (+55%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $161 $134 −$28 (-17%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 26¢ $150 $127 −$23 (-15%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 22¢ 22¢ $125 $122 −$3 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Under 41¢ 42¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $106 $116 +$10 (+10%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 11¢ 23¢ $50 $107 +$57 (+114%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $94 $104 +$10 (+11%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 34¢ $90 $87 −$3 (-3%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 30¢ $90 $86 −$4 (-4%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 18¢ 18¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 +$81 +114%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 +$46 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $127 +$171 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $121 +$66 +55%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $142 −$140 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $193 −$114 -59%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $272 −$272 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $127 −$127 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $613 +$821 +134%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $122 +$164 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $107 −$107 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $116 −$116 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$148 +146%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $255 −$28 -11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $76 +$98 +129%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $102 +$54 +53%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $152 −$152 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $117 −$117 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $152 −$152 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $152 −$152 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $455 −$405 -89%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $146 −$146 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $82 −$82 -100%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $153 −$153 -100%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $153 −$153 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs Chwalinska Jun 11 $348 −$291 -84%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 11 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 11 $153 −$153 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $153 −$153 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $401 −$297 -74%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 11 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 11 $204 −$204 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $162 10m
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $86 16m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $61 19m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 22¢ $128 21m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $122 58m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $193 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $71 6h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 6h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $81 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $127 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $25 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $121 14h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 10¢ $123 23h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $245 23h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 44¢ $188 23h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $26 27h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 42¢ $25 28h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $91 29h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 20¢ $79 35h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $193 36h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $133 45h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $76 45h
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,434 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $152 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $127 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $122 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 57¢ $152 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 43¢ $228 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,424.76 · official $4,407.34 (match) · 3500 history records