Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6b8…387f other 25 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$189 (-25%) realized −$189 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$151
sports 25% +$22
world 5% −$37
crypto 4% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -11.3% -19.8% 36% 32% -33.5%
≤30d 25 -11.3% -19.8% 36% 32% -33.5%
≤90d 25 -11.3% -19.8% 36% 32% -33.5%
all 25 -11.3% -19.8% 36% 32% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 32% -33.5%
10% -27.5% 32% -39.9%
15% -34.5% 32% -45.7%
20% -40.9% 28% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$29 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$189
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 −$37 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$60 +291%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $41 −$22 -54%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$39 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $38 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $48 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records