Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C6 0xc6b5…e41a crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$12 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$2
world 18% −$14
other 14% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -32.4% -38.8% 50% 50% +0.7%
≤30d 4 -32.4% -38.8% 50% 50% +0.7%
≤90d 4 -32.4% -38.8% 50% 50% +0.7%
all 24 -13.1% -21.4% 54% 50% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 50% -4.7%
10% -28.9% 33% -13.8%
15% -35.8% 33% -22.2%
20% -42.1% 33% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage170d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 40¢ 10¢ $19 $5 −$15 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 20 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 20 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 20 $5 +$1 +11%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 19 $23 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Feb 19 $32 −$9 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 19 $10 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 19 $10 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 19 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 18 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 18 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 18 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 18 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 18 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 18 $19 +$11 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 18 $16 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $19 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $5 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $6 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 127d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 127d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $23 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $23 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $22 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $3 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $6 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.62 · official $4.62 (match) · 51 history records