Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6b4…aee0 weather 354 markets active 22h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate80%283W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$10
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -6.0% -15.0% 77% 26% -15.3%
≤30d 288 -2.1% -11.4% 78% 22% -12.6%
≤90d 354 -1.4% -10.8% 80% 26% -11.8%
all 354 -1.4% -10.8% 80% 26% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 26% -11.8%
10% -19.3% 3% -20.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.9%
20% -34.3% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses283 / 71
Open positions0
Markets (closed)354 / 354
History coverage45d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 354 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 88¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 60¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 830 history records