Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C6 0xc6ae…f350 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$4 (+3%) realized +$5 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$9
crypto 20% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.2% +2.4% 75% 50% +2.5%
≤30d 4 +13.2% +2.4% 75% 50% +2.5%
≤90d 4 +13.2% +2.4% 75% 50% +2.5%
all 4 +13.2% +2.4% 75% 50% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 50% +2.5%
10% -7.4% 50% -7.3%
15% -16.3% 50% -16.3%
20% -24.5% 25% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 75¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 81¢ 81¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $10 33m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $23 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 81¢ $9 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.51 · official $62.51 (match) · 17 history records