Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C6 0xc6aa…d86c crypto 1172 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$921 (-15%) realized −$923 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%439W / 733L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day102.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,310
7 days−$1,054
14 days−$1,100
30 days−$1,482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$863
sports 11% −$616
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 319 -7.8% -16.5% 33% 29% -30.8%
≤30d 1172 -6.3% -15.2% 37% 34% -22.3%
≤90d 1172 -6.3% -15.2% 37% 34% -22.3%
all 1172 -6.3% -15.2% 37% 34% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 34% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 30% -29.8%
15% -30.7% 24% -36.5%
20% -37.5% 19% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$923
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses439 / 733
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1172 / 1172
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day102.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 33¢ 48¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$6 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$12 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$12 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$15 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$20 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$20 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$36 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$36 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$50 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$100 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$100 -200%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $609 −$800 -131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.20 · official $7.20 (match) · 3500 history records