trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 50% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 67% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +1.2% | -8.5% | 71% | 0% | -8.7% |
| all | 20 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 70% | 0% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 0% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -25.6% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $47 | $47 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 29¢ | 55¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+88%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | May 27 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 24 | $16 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $43 | +$1 | +3% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 23 | $45 | $0 | +1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | May 21 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 13 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 12 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 09 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? | Apr 09 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? | Apr 07 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 28 | $12 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? | Mar 20 | $12 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? | Mar 15 | $12 | $0 | +0% |