Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6a6…fec7 other 197 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,282 (-2%) realized −$1,259 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate48%94W / 100L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day60.2pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days+$336
14 days+$716
30 days+$936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$152
sports 33% +$193
world 2% +$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.9% -2.4% 54% 38% -2.9%
≤30d 58 +8.1% -2.2% 52% 33% -4.6%
≤90d 194 +17.6% +6.4% 48% 31% -8.7%
all 194 +17.6% +6.4% 48% 31% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.4% 31% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -3.8% 19% -17.5%
15% -13.1% 12% -25.4%
20% -21.6% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +31% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$83 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized−$1,259
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses94 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions3
Markets (closed)194 / 197
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$305
Trades / day60.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 77¢ 72¢ $362 $339 −$23 (-6%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 91¢ 90¢ $182 $181 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 31¢ 36¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $154 −$153 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $276 +$140 +51%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $377 +$58 +15%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $429 +$139 +32%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $227 −$2 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $615 +$20 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $345 −$169 -49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $238 +$203 +85%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $496 −$57 -12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $527 −$54 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $474 +$18 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $233 +$195 +84%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $209 +$24 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $497 −$2 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $434 −$32 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $236 +$226 +96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 −$4 -2%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $296 +$49 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $355 +$107 +30%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $262 +$43 +16%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $224 +$203 +91%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $462 −$78 -17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $533 −$136 -25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $200 +$17 +9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $257 −$50 -19%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $200 +$11 +5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $406 +$16 +4%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $343 −$138 -40%
Will Girona FC vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 24 $236 +$30 +13%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a dr May 24 $344 −$26 -8%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 24 $281 −$72 -26%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 24 $582 −$62 -11%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $242 +$17 +7%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $350 −$5 -1%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $274 +$72 +26%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $258 +$78 +30%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $371 −$63 -17%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $214 +$157 +73%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $200 +$42 +21%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $279 +$4 +1%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? May 24 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $207 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $153 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $49 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $183 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $162 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 30¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $12 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $6 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $6 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $6 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $154 19h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $305 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $296 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $18 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 53¢ $15 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 53¢ $19 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $16 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 54¢ $19 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 53¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.61 · official $526.61 (match) · 3500 history records