Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6a2…f803 crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-8%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.0% -17.6% 70% 30% -16.9%
≤30d 10 -9.0% -17.6% 70% 30% -16.9%
≤90d 10 -9.0% -17.6% 70% 30% -16.9%
all 10 -9.0% -17.6% 70% 30% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 30% -16.9%
10% -25.5% 20% -24.8%
15% -32.7% 20% -32.1%
20% -39.3% 0% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records