Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6a2…d076 other 84 markets active 1d ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$90,659 (+35%) realized +$101,114 · open −$10,455
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate57%26W / 20L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$3,096per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$10,339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$615
14 days+$1,021
30 days+$3,675
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% +$90,686
world 13% +$1,942
other 4% −$1,463
finance 4% −$494
tech 1% +$705
sports 0% −$554
culture 0% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +15.2% +4.2% 100% 100% +4.2%
≤30d 14 -20.6% -28.2% 57% 43% +6.0%
≤90d 39 -5.6% -14.6% 56% 36% +6.8%
all 46 +2.0% -7.7% 57% 39% +30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 39% +30.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 30% +17.7%
15% -24.6% 24% +6.3%
20% -32.0% 15% -4.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$2,782) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,088 vs −$1,547 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.28 per $1 lost it wins $4.28
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$10,339
Realized+$101,114
Unrealized−$10,455
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses26 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions38
Markets (closed)46 / 84
History coverage560d
Avg bet$3,096
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government? No 91¢ 93¢ $1,487 $1,528 +$41 (+3%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? Yes 60¢ 22¢ $3,749 $1,373 −$2,376 (-63%)
Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government? No 72¢ 60¢ $1,453 $1,200 −$252 (-17%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $864 $845 −$19 (-2%)
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government? No 33¢ 50¢ $509 $791 +$281 (+55%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 49¢ $538 $593 +$55 (+10%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $585 $581 −$4 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 95¢ $430 $473 +$43 (+10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $331 $414 +$83 (+25%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? No 86¢ 56¢ $578 $378 −$200 (-35%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $250 $295 +$45 (+18%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat? Yes 56¢ 38¢ $420 $283 −$137 (-33%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $244 $221 −$23 (-9%)
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 92¢ 98¢ $138 $147 +$9 (+7%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 39¢ 28¢ $189 $137 −$53 (-28%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $78 $134 +$55 (+71%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? No 29¢ 2¢ $1,538 $130 −$1,408 (-92%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $95 $124 +$30 (+32%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 9¢ 66¢ $16 $112 +$97 (+622%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 76¢ 88¢ $95 $110 +$15 (+16%)
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $92 $97 +$5 (+6%)
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Romania? Yes 51¢ 35¢ $119 $83 −$37 (-31%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 41¢ 16¢ $156 $62 −$94 (-60%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $237 $43 −$194 (-82%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 40¢ 16¢ $92 $38 −$55 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 13 $4,060 +$615 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2,782 +$109 +4%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $603 +$297 +49%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1,008 +$162 +16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,263 +$237 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,972 +$2,743 +69%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 30 $108 −$108 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $561 −$561 -100%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 30 $47 −$47 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $118 −$118 -100%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 29 $1,520 +$705 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,118 +$182 +16%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $1,925 −$237 -12%
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,439 +$323 +22%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $101 +$39 +38%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $493 +$137 +28%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $170 −$3 -2%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $367 −$9 -2%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 13 $352 −$352 -100%
Will a team from Germany be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 13 $223 −$223 -100%
Will Bayern Munich Win the Treble? May 13 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 12 $294 +$5 +2%
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 12 $255 +$4 +2%
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 12 $248 +$9 +4%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 10 $548 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? May 09 $162 −$58 -36%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $270 +$730 +270%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $742 −$136 -18%
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $173 −$124 -72%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $1,585 −$760 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $3,490 +$2,160 +62%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $3,300 +$200 +6%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $105 +$148 +141%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $5,290 +$2,107 +40%
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $54 +$70 +130%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $340 +$20 +6%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $793 +$1,643 +207%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? Jun 25 $1,016 +$292 +29%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $93,498 −$18,934 -20%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? May 21 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $52,421 +$113,292 +216%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 06 $8,062 −$3,553 -44%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 06 $28,605 +$6,050 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $130 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $378 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 93¢ $11 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 93¢ $83 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 93¢ $21 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 92¢ $212 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 92¢ $46 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 92¢ $13 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $22 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $22 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 90¢ $27 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 92¢ $60 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 92¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $219 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $5 3d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL No 90¢ $125 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $747 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $43 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $106 3d
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 95¢ $789 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $298 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $633 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 93¢ $9 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 93¢ $56 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 93¢ $82 3d
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 96¢ $1,010 3d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY Yes 61¢ $0 5d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY Yes 61¢ $4 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $224 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,339.38 · official $10,339.57 (match) · 1227 history records