Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C6 0xc6a0…4309 crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$120 (-30%) realized −$118 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%20W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$85
other 17% −$46
sports 13% +$16
politics 3% −$9
world 2% −$5
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +3.4% -6.5% 16% 16% -42.4%
≤30d 30 +5.9% -4.2% 20% 20% -32.6%
≤90d 69 -20.9% -28.5% 23% 22% -41.3%
all 77 -17.2% -25.1% 26% 25% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 25% -38.7%
10% -32.3% 21% -44.5%
15% -38.8% 19% -49.9%
20% -44.8% 18% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses20 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage120d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -12%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Ted Cruz as the next United States Attorney Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$47 +1519%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $5 +$8 +163%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 25 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 25 $7 +$13 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 24 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 24 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$8 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 06 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Trump say "Iran" or "Iranian" 15+ times during Monday news confer Apr 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Monday news conf Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 06 $9 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 06 $5 −$3 -48%
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister Mar 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 23 $6 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 23 $15 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 22m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 23m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 45m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 23h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 24h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 25h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 27h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 28h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 31h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.12 · official $2.12 (match) · 183 history records