Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc69c…3442 crypto 1378 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$892 (-8%) realized −$892 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%796W / 582L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$278
30 days−$957
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$976
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -2.4% -11.7% 89% 37% -8.6%
≤30d 761 -10.8% -19.3% 61% 39% -19.5%
≤90d 1378 -7.3% -16.1% 58% 46% -17.5%
all 1378 -7.3% -16.1% 58% 46% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 46% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 41% -25.4%
15% -31.5% 40% -32.6%
20% -38.2% 39% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$892
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses796 / 582
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1378 / 1378
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1378 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $81 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $80 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $81 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$4 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records