Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc69a…7537 crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-6%) realized −$51 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate64%23W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$9
other 26% −$43
sports 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -3.5% -12.7% 62% 21% -14.9%
≤30d 29 -3.5% -12.7% 62% 21% -14.9%
≤90d 29 -3.5% -12.7% 62% 21% -14.9%
all 36 -6.5% -15.4% 64% 19% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 19% -14.6%
10% -23.5% 14% -22.8%
15% -30.9% 14% -30.3%
20% -37.6% 14% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses23 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage196d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $110 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$38 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $46 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$40 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 8? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 8? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 8? Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 8? Dec 08 $19 −$10 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 7? Dec 08 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 7? Dec 08 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 7? Dec 08 $68 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 6? Dec 07 $9 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 30? Dec 01 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $84 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 54m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $70 56m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $17 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.88 · official $82.88 (match) · 116 history records