Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc698…454c crypto 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 292d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+0%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate87%157W / 23L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$14
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$76
sports 1% −$17
other 0% +$6
tech 0% +$7
world 0% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 37 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 109 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 180 -2.2% -11.5% 87% 15% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 15% -9.4%
10% -20.0% 12% -18.1%
15% -27.7% 9% -26.0%
20% -34.8% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$557) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

292d coverage
Net worth$509
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses157 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)180 / 182
History coverage292d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $499 $499 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? Jun 22 $596 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 20? Jun 20 $595 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $594 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? Jun 18 $594 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $593 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? Jun 16 $590 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $590 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $588 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $587 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $587 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 12? Jun 13 $585 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? Jun 12 $583 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $583 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? Jun 09 $582 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $581 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? Jun 08 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $580 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? Jun 06 $580 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $579 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $578 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $577 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? Jun 04 $577 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $576 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $435 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 1? Jun 02 $435 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $575 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 30? May 31 $574 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 29? May 29 $573 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 27? May 27 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $571 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 25? May 25 $571 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24? May 25 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? May 24 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 24? May 24 $350 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 23? May 24 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 23? May 23 $568 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 21? May 22 $568 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 19? May 19 $567 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 18? May 18 $566 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? May 18 $340 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on May 17? May 18 $226 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17? May 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 17? May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 17? May 17 $315 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 16? May 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 16? May 16 $548 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 15? May 16 $563 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15? May 15 $351 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $499 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $596 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $595 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $594 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $594 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $593 6d
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $590 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $590 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $588 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $587 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $587 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $585 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $583 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $583 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $582 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $581 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $581 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $580 16d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $580 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $579 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $578 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $577 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $577 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $576 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $435 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $140 21d
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $435 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $575 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $574 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $573 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $509.11 · official $509.11 (match) · 436 history records