Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc696…dc37 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$5
world 34% −$1
politics 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.7%
all 30 +1.5% -8.1% 47% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -8.9%
10% -16.9% 3% -17.7%
15% -25.0% 3% -25.6%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage377d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $87 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 -3%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $2 $0 +4%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Eva Copa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be from another party? Jun 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 19 $23 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 17 $4 $0 -5%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1? Jun 16 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 13 $27 $0 -1%
Will Joaquin Niemann win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 13 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $12 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $25 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $38 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $44 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $44 8h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $19 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $11 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $8 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $21 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $29 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $12 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $40 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $4 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $44 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $20 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $20 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $43 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $43 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records