Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc695…b416 weather 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate86%166W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$24
tech 1% $0
sports 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 35 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 149 +0.2% -9.4% 93% 6% -9.4%
all 194 +5.0% -5.0% 86% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 9% -9.2%
10% -14.1% 9% -17.9%
15% -22.4% 9% -25.8%
20% -30.0% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses166 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)194 / 196
History coverage115d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 7? Jun 08 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 4? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 2? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 30? May 31 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 29? May 30 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 28? May 29 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on May 27 May 28 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 26? May 27 $48 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 25? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 25? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on May 25 May 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 24? May 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 24? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 23? May 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 23? May 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 22? May 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on May 22 May 22 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 21? May 22 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 21? May 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 20? May 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 20? May 20 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 17? May 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 3°C on May 16? May 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 15? May 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 16? May 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 14? May 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 15? May 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 14? May 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on May 13? May 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 13? May 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 12? May 13 $47 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $50 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $49 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $49 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $49 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $49 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $49 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $49 9d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $49 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 11 BUY No 100¢ $49 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $17 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $49 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $49 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $49 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $48 18d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $48 19d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $48 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $9 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $5 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $34 20d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $48 21d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $48 22d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $48 24d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $48 25d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on May 27 BUY No 100¢ $48 26d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $48 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $32 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.31 · official $50.31 (match) · 382 history records