trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -6.7% | -15.6% | 88% | 12% | -8.3% |
| all | 19 | -7.9% | -16.7% | 84% | 5% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.7% | 5% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -24.6% | 5% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -31.9% | 5% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -38.6% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $160 | $160 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $100 | $100 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $128 | $0 | +0% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? | May 31 | $132 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 12? | May 13 | $260 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 20 above $3.50? | Apr 28 | $259 | +$1 | +0% |
| Heat vs. Raptors | Apr 10 | $103 | +$46 | +45% |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | Apr 03 | $13 | −$13 | -97% |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | Mar 29 | $1,025 | +$1 | +0% |
| Hawks vs. Celtics | Mar 28 | $1,023 | +$2 | +0% |
| Knicks vs. Hornets | Mar 28 | $1,022 | +$1 | +0% |
| Nets vs. Trail Blazers | Mar 25 | $1,021 | +$1 | +0% |
| Warriors vs. Mavericks | Mar 24 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Rockets vs. Bulls | Mar 24 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Erwann Davoux win the Marseille mayor election? | Mar 22 | $1,039 | +$2 | +0% |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner | Mar 04 | $1,018 | +$21 | +2% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Bulls | Feb 27 | $1,007 | +$10 | +1% |
| Thunder vs. Nuggets | Feb 14 | $1,004 | +$3 | +0% |
| Will Meta (META) finish week of January 19 above $560? | Jan 24 | $1,003 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 5 above $300? | Jan 10 | $1,002 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Jan 02 | $1,001 | +$1 | +0% |