Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc689…9f1f other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized +$8 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$10
world 21% +$42
politics 13% −$37
sports 5% −$2
economics 2% −$3
finance 2% −$3
crypto 2% −$5
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.3% -20.6% 27% 9% -7.5%
≤30d 37 -30.3% -36.9% 24% 16% -10.9%
≤90d 37 -30.3% -36.9% 24% 16% -10.9%
all 37 -30.3% -36.9% 24% 16% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 16% -10.9%
10% -43.0% 14% -19.4%
15% -48.5% 11% -27.2%
20% -53.5% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)37 / 48
History coverage25d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $47 $37 −$10 (-21%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -49%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $63 +$4 +6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 $0 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +49%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $17 −$2 -10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -44%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic o Jun 01 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in Jun 01 $1 −$1 -77%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 01 $1 $0 -25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 29 $3 −$1 -25%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 26 $2 +$1 +56%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24) May 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $24 +$50 +204%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $38 −$33 -85%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? May 24 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 24 $2 −$1 -26%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $1 +$1 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 0¢ $1 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $1 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 10¢ $1 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.39 · official $48.40 · 161 history records