Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc688…4993 sports 96 markets active 7h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$94 (-1%) realized −$97 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate71%67W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$525
7 days−$401
14 days+$38
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$289
other 17% −$487
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -2.0% -11.4% 71% 50% -18.5%
≤30d 80 +5.0% -5.0% 70% 61% -12.1%
≤90d 95 +8.0% -2.3% 71% 63% -11.2%
all 95 +8.0% -2.3% 71% 63% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 63% -11.2%
10% -11.7% 42% -19.7%
15% -20.2% 28% -27.4%
20% -28.0% 19% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$80 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$411
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses67 / 28
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage38d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $408 $411 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $713 −$558 -78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $397 +$33 +8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $201 +$22 +11%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$110 +55%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $404 +$124 +31%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$45 -44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $100 +$7 +7%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$91 +90%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $710 +$103 +14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $504 +$41 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$46 +46%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $202 +$135 +66%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $51 +$26 +52%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$33 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$20 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$68 +67%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $303 +$53 +17%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $703 +$126 +18%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$44 +44%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$33 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $50 +$16 +31%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $100 +$15 +14%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $100 +$8 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $50 +$24 +48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $50 +$11 +21%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $93 +$12 +13%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $41 +$9 +22%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $60 +$7 +12%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $18 −$17 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $202 +$69 +34%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $25 +$15 +62%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $101 +$21 +21%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $201 +$39 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $301 +$30 +10%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 28 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $333 −$316 -95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 28 $337 −$11 -3%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 28 $28 +$12 +43%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $58 +$31 +54%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 27 $20 +$8 +42%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $121 −$121 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $61 +$9 +16%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $246 −$22 -9%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $20 +$4 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $408 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $155 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $405 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $207 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $24 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $45 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $49 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $45 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $45 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $188 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $528 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 20¢ $57 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $102 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $201 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 72¢ $202 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 64¢ $202 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $202 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 64¢ $101 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 69¢ $101 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 93¢ $100 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $101 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 75¢ $101 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $101 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 65¢ $303 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 37¢ $218 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 80¢ $402 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 19¢ $45 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $102 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $306 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.00 · official $411.00 (match) · 302 history records