Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc686…2e48 crypto 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-4%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate71%71W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$96
other 8% +$8
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.3% -3.9% 67% 42% -7.7%
≤30d 24 +6.3% -3.9% 67% 42% -7.7%
≤90d 24 +6.3% -3.9% 67% 42% -7.7%
all 100 +5.9% -4.2% 71% 46% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 46% -14.3%
10% -13.4% 32% -22.5%
15% -21.7% 26% -30.0%
20% -29.4% 18% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses71 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage118d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$8 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$15 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$17 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +87%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 01 $74 −$67 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 01 $131 −$109 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 01 $11 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 01 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 01 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 01 $16 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 01 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 01 $18 +$7 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 01 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 01 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 01 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 28 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 28 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 28 $4 +$9 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 28 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 28 $3 +$2 +81%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Feb 28 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 28 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 28 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 28 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 28 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 28 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Feb 28 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Feb 28 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $45 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $38 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.44 · official $9.44 (match) · 361 history records