Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C6 0xc686…5a55 sports 1263 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$39,339 (-11%) realized −$38,270 · open −$1,069
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%441W / 819L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Fees−$5,081est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,760now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 53d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$5,396
other 26% −$18,637
world 0% +$986
crypto 0% −$304
finance 0% −$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -47.5% -52.5% 21% 21% -43.2%
≤30d 581 -21.4% -28.9% 31% 31% -18.7%
≤90d 1260 -10.9% -19.4% 35% 35% -12.4%
all 1260 -10.9% -19.4% 35% 35% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 35% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 35% -20.8%
15% -34.2% 34% -28.5%
20% -40.6% 33% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$435 vs −$249 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$1,760
Realized−$38,270
Unrealized−$1,069
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses441 / 819
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$5,081
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1260 / 1263
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$290
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1,767 $1,751 −$16 (-1%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 0¢ $872 $7 −$865 (-99%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 0¢ $190 $3 −$187 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2,021 +$1,479 +73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $180 −$175 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,909 −$1,146 -60%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 20 $559 −$557 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $239 −$236 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $496 −$495 -100%
Alexander Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $55 −$54 -98%
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $378 +$262 +69%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall Jun 20 $452 −$451 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $984 −$968 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,212 +$818 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,055 −$1,040 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,526 −$1,500 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $200 −$196 -98%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $509 −$500 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $569 −$561 -99%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $409 −$400 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11 +$41 +361%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $203 +$227 +112%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $492 −$485 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $693 +$495 +71%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $288 +$1,312 +456%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,958 +$2,142 +109%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir end in a draw? Jun 18 $98 −$96 -98%
RS Berkane vs. OC Safi: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
Will Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport end in a draw? Jun 18 $431 −$431 -100%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $951 −$936 -98%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $498 −$490 -98%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $509 −$500 -98%
Linda Noskova vs. Diane Parry: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $407 −$399 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $386 −$377 -98%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $225 −$220 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $528 −$520 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $459 −$450 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $78 −$76 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $508 +$555 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $437 −$429 -98%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $475 +$624 +131%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $509 +$709 +139%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $767 +$875 +114%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $409 +$1,282 +313%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida end in a draw? Jun 17 $353 −$351 -100%
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $608 +$484 +80%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $572 −$572 -100%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $277 −$274 -99%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $608 −$600 -99%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $506 +$326 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $1,790 14m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $180 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $2,021 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,137 3h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $103 3h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $456 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Emilio Nava 47¢ $239 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 45¢ $407 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 45¢ $36 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 45¢ $2 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 45¢ $10 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 45¢ $1 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 45¢ $4 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 45¢ $35 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 20¢ $701 4h
Alexander Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 18¢ $55 4h
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $94 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $772 7h
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 90¢ $546 8h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall BUY Alexander Shevchenko 41¢ $144 8h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall BUY Alexander Shevchenko 41¢ $83 8h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall BUY Alexander Shevchenko 41¢ $127 8h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall BUY Alexander Shevchenko 41¢ $12 8h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall BUY Alexander Shevchenko 41¢ $14 8h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall BUY Alexander Shevchenko 41¢ $11 8h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall BUY Alexander Shevchenko 41¢ $13 8h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall BUY Alexander Shevchenko 41¢ $47 8h
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 54¢ $5 8h
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 54¢ $59 8h
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 54¢ $31 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,760.44 · official $1,760.75 (match) · 3500 history records