Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc684…2228 politics 291 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$98,367 (+62%) realized +$90,952 · open +$7,415
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +131% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%56W / 64L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$543per market
Trades / day109.0pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$95,858now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% +$13,469
other 35% +$7,069
world 12% +$1,821
sports 8% +$1,673
crypto 3% −$74
tech 3% +$189
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+109.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +91.6% +73.4% 26% 19% -17.6%
≤30d 120 +131.1% +109.1% 47% 40% +8.7%
≤90d 120 +131.1% +109.1% 47% 40% +8.7%
all 120 +131.1% +109.1% 47% 40% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +109.1% 40% +8.7%
10% ← realistic here +89.1% 33% -1.7%
15% +70.8% 31% -11.2%
20% +54.1% 28% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +131% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +168% → late +94% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$425 vs −$154 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$95,858
Realized+$90,952
Unrealized+$7,415
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses56 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions437
Markets (closed)120 / 291
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$543
Trades / day109.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 437 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 43¢ 61¢ $6,218 $8,684 +$2,466 (+40%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $5,264 $5,886 +$622 (+12%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $4,061 $4,608 +$546 (+13%)
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 92¢ 99¢ $3,597 $3,879 +$282 (+8%)
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? No 89¢ 94¢ $3,092 $3,263 +$172 (+6%)
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 58¢ 82¢ $2,033 $2,901 +$868 (+43%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 24¢ $3,894 $2,444 −$1,451 (-37%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? No 75¢ 86¢ $1,950 $2,212 +$262 (+13%)
Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? No 59¢ 84¢ $1,342 $1,899 +$557 (+42%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 87¢ 91¢ $1,719 $1,795 +$76 (+4%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $1,617 $1,767 +$150 (+9%)
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? No 60¢ 72¢ $1,198 $1,431 +$233 (+19%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $1,312 $1,409 +$96 (+7%)
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 72¢ 95¢ $991 $1,319 +$327 (+33%)
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 30¢ 64¢ $601 $1,309 +$708 (+118%)
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $1,025 $1,208 +$184 (+18%)
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? No 49¢ 46¢ $1,290 $1,208 −$82 (-6%)
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 79¢ 99¢ $797 $999 +$202 (+25%)
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 87¢ 98¢ $883 $990 +$107 (+12%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1,000 $927 −$73 (-7%)
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $852 $905 +$53 (+6%)
Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 65¢ 99¢ $572 $867 +$295 (+52%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $796 $856 +$60 (+7%)
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? No 82¢ 82¢ $829 $835 +$6 (+1%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 76¢ 79¢ $788 $818 +$30 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Jun 17 $0 $0 +108%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025? Jun 17 $9 +$132 +1467%
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Pacific Division? Jun 17 $153 −$147 -96%
Spread: Lions (-7.5) Jun 17 $14 −$9 -65%
Vikings vs. Cowboys Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan State Spartans Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor in the 2026 Critics Choice Aw Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan McCullough win American Idol Season 24? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Charrière vs. Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 17 $128 −$108 -84%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Aw Jun 17 $57 −$16 -28%
Will Tetairoa McMillan be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Ye Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the #2 global Netf Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Player 58 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jun 17 $9 +$236 +2507%
Hurricanes vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2025 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Hornets vs. Pacers Jun 17 $415 −$415 -100%
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. UIC Flames Jun 17 $46 −$44 -96%
Will Jean Smart win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Aw Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will The Weeknd be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Jun 17 $3 +$711 +22314%
Will Player 38 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robert Irwin & Witney Carson win Dancing with the Stars Season 34 Jun 17 $8 +$659 +8273%
Bulls vs. Hornets Jun 17 $242 −$242 -100%
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix mov Jun 17 $825 −$811 -98%
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Award Jun 17 $48 −$47 -98%
Spread: Arizona (-2.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Jonathan Young win Survivor Season 50? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Devils Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will "Emergence - Sleep Token" win Best Metal Performance at the 68th Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) win Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Go Jun 17 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Death Stranding 2: On the Beach win Best Art Direction at the 202 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
UT Arlington Mavericks vs. Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros Jun 17 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Will Anthony Jones win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-2.5) Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
North Dakota State Bison vs. Drake Bulldogs Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-12-07? Jun 17 $321 −$321 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-7.5) Jun 17 $1,334 −$1,318 -99%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awar Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $9 +$1,997 +21638%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Clemson win the 2025 ACC Conference Championship Game? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -74%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 17 $613 −$506 -82%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Kyle Shanahan win NFL Coach of the Year? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +228%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 21m
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 AL West title? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 48m
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 AL West title? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 49m
Will Oakland Athletics win the 2026 AL West title? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 22¢ $28 1h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 1h
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? BUY No 47¢ $54 1h
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? BUY No 47¢ $48 1h
Will Cole Ragans win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 AL West title? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? SELL No 37¢ $77 3h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? BUY Yes 62¢ $436 3h
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 3h
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 3h
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 96¢ $41 3h
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 96¢ $7 3h
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 9¢ $44 3h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 47¢ $8 5h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 46¢ $39 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 28¢ $86 7h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 79¢ $239 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 9h
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY No 17¢ $53 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 9h
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 74¢ $71 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95,857.75 · official $95,855.74 (match) · 3500 history records