Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc682…17bb world 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,495 (+1%) realized +$11,183 · open −$4,688
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate62%29W / 18L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$8,544per market
Trades / day101.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$229,453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% +$20,548
world 37% +$31,122
other 17% +$3,501
crypto 4% +$108
finance 3% +$596
tech 1% +$884
economics 0% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -5.9% -14.9% 46% 11% +0.2%
≤30d 46 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 11% +4.9%
≤90d 47 -0.3% -9.8% 62% 11% +4.9%
all 47 -0.3% -9.8% 62% 11% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 11% +4.9%
10% -18.4% 6% -5.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 4% -14.3%
20% -33.5% 4% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$7,862) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
25.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,396 vs −$467 · ×5.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.75 per $1 lost it wins $8.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$229,453
Realized+$11,183
Unrealized−$4,688
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses29 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions39
Markets (closed)47 / 77
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$8,544
Trades / day101.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $95,047 $98,182 +$3,135 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $24,952 $25,650 +$698 (+3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $14,000 $23,562 +$9,562 (+68%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $22,572 $22,630 +$58 (+0%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 78¢ 81¢ $14,378 $15,067 +$689 (+5%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $10,224 $9,879 −$346 (-3%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $7,708 $7,770 +$63 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $6,028 $6,283 +$254 (+4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $14,000 $4,438 −$9,562 (-68%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $3,150 $2,824 −$326 (-10%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 70¢ 98¢ $1,827 $2,582 +$755 (+41%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $2,037 $2,179 +$143 (+7%)
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 50¢ 99¢ $960 $1,893 +$933 (+97%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 71¢ 72¢ $1,252 $1,278 +$26 (+2%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $775 $774 −$1 (-0%)
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $610 $654 +$44 (+7%)
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 76¢ 59¢ $739 $575 −$164 (-22%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $480 $538 +$58 (+12%)
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $412 $413 +$1 (+0%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 45¢ 34¢ $360 $276 −$84 (-23%)
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? No 75¢ 86¢ $225 $257 +$32 (+14%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 81¢ 84¢ $243 $254 +$10 (+4%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? No 92¢ 89¢ $246 $238 −$8 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 14¢ 10¢ $315 $225 −$90 (-29%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 42¢ $222 $212 −$10 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $11 +$17 +155%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 17 $51 −$11 -22%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $55 −$9 -16%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $273 +$13 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $618 −$15 -2%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $8,564 +$50 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $6,079 −$1,580 -26%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $2,730 +$28 +1%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 15 $1,263 −$296 -24%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $226 −$62 -27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,807 +$7 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3,184 −$2,736 -86%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 15 $480 −$85 -18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $873 −$62 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $16,687 +$4,778 +29%
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Jun 14 $800 +$11 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $14,679 −$2,544 -17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $7,856 +$320 +4%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 13 $8,999 +$29 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $169,976 +$30,234 +18%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 12 $1,629 +$55 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $139 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4,943 −$394 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $8 −$5 -57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $30 −$21 -70%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $26 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $2,116 −$118 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $21,923 +$1,414 +6%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $24,900 +$108 +0%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 02 $507 +$28 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $636 +$63 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $986 +$14 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11,632 +$1,132 +10%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $9,198 +$132 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $14,638 +$2,611 +18%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $3,893 +$164 +4%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 28 $7,862 +$26 +0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? May 27 $162 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 27 $3 $0 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 26 $2,273 +$34 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 25 $28 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $9 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $79 −$2 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 22 $28,098 +$28,161 +100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 18 $90 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 13¢ $13 9m
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 9¢ $5 24m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 12¢ $16 26m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $243 27m
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 9¢ $35 27m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 13¢ $30 27m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $452 27m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $42 29m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 24¢ $15 52m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $152 55m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 89¢ $107 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 8¢ $5 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $16 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 6¢ $6 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? SELL No 73¢ $15 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $10 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 18¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 19¢ $38 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 18¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 81¢ $202 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $202 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 82¢ $70 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $9 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $9 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $34 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $41 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $158 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229,452.88 · official $229,456.27 (match) · 3500 history records