Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc67d…6be7 crypto 402 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$910 (-13%) realized −$911 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%199W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day56.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$567
7 days−$867
14 days−$1,080
30 days−$1,086
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$277
politics 20% −$619
other 20% −$115
sports 8% −$72
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 369 -13.6% -21.8% 51% 33% -23.0%
≤30d 401 -14.4% -22.5% 50% 33% -23.5%
≤90d 401 -14.4% -22.5% 50% 33% -23.5%
all 401 -14.4% -22.5% 50% 33% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 33% -23.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 20% -30.8%
15% -36.7% 14% -37.5%
20% -42.9% 8% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$911
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses199 / 202
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)401 / 402
History coverage17d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day56.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $133 $134 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $161 +$2 +1%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -86%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$14 -89%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $23 −$9 -40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 −$14 -56%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$11 -36%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$23 +150%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +25%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$1 -7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$9 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$2 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $133 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $36 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $126 5h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $131 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 18h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 20h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $23 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 20h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 20h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 52¢ $11 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 21h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 23h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 23h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 24h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $9 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $16 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.67 · official $133.67 (match) · 1246 history records