Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C6 0xc67c…9ad5 other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$858 (+0%) realized +$887 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%65W / 177L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$789per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$3,691now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,444
7 days−$5,359
14 days−$5,359
30 days−$5,369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% +$1,358
other 4% −$242
politics 1% −$12
sports 0% −$42
crypto 0% −$122
economics 0% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -35.7% -41.8% 16% 14% -16.9%
≤30d 71 -36.6% -42.7% 15% 14% -16.9%
≤90d 79 -27.8% -34.7% 20% 16% -9.0%
all 242 -18.7% -26.4% 27% 25% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 25% -9.1%
10% -33.5% 23% -17.8%
15% -39.9% 21% -25.8%
20% -45.8% 19% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$73 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$3,691
Realized+$887
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses65 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)242 / 252
History coverage619d
Avg bet$789
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2,500 $2,481 −$19 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $620 $617 −$3 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $380 $378 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 9¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $191 +$253 +133%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $7 +$30 +413%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 17 $7 +$43 +596%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$58 +72%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$73 +711%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 +$37 +510%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$30 +291%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -67%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -33%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$18 +354%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 17 $53,957 +$4,960 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26, 10-11am? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-10? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bungee win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26, 5-6am? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-09-27? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-08-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to 116.5k on August 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-09-24? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Napoli end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bayern München vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $381 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $41 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $140 12h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $37 12h
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $50 12h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $153 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $80 12h
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $7 15h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $7 15h
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $4 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 15h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 38¢ $23 16h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $5 18h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,690.90 · official $3,690.90 (match) · 574 history records