Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:58:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C6 0xc67c…5047 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,917 (-73%) realized −$3,078 · open +$161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$670per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,168
7 days−$3,168
14 days−$3,168
30 days−$2,922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$2,418
sports 39% −$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-72.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -70.0% -72.9% 20% 20% -81.7%
≤90d 5 -70.0% -72.9% 20% 20% -81.7%
all 5 -70.0% -72.9% 20% 20% -81.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.9% 20% -81.7%
10% -75.5% 20% -83.5%
15% -77.8% 20% -85.1%
20% -80.0% 0% -86.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$246 vs −$792 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$461
Realized−$3,078
Unrealized+$161
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage22d
Avg bet$670
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Under 58¢ 89¢ $300 $461 +$161 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $428 −$418 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $767 −$750 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,193 −$1,174 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $837 −$825 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 06 $492 +$246 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $428 43h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $767 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,193 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $837 3d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $492 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.48 · official $461.48 (match) · 9 history records