Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc67b…b024 crypto 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 582d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,845 (+3%) realized +$1,565 · open +$280
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate84%86W / 16L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$473per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3,956now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,118
7 days+$2,188
14 days+$2,188
30 days+$2,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$1,587
other 19% +$163
tech 9% +$294
economics 4% +$358
politics 3% −$377
sports 3% +$1,702
world 2% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +338.8% +297.0% 100% 67% +116.9%
≤30d 3 +338.8% +297.0% 100% 67% +116.9%
≤90d 8 +103.6% +84.2% 75% 25% +67.5%
all 102 +7.6% -2.6% 84% 34% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 34% -3.1%
10% -12.0% 14% -12.4%
15% -20.5% 8% -20.8%
20% -28.3% 6% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$141 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

582d coverage
Net worth$3,956
Realized+$1,565
Unrealized+$280
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses86 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions12
Markets (closed)102 / 115
History coverage582d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $1,470 $1,709 +$239 (+16%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 84¢ 100¢ $444 $527 +$83 (+19%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 90¢ 100¢ $445 $493 +$49 (+11%)
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 61¢ $268 $230 −$38 (-14%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 80¢ $194 $200 +$6 (+3%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $177 $187 +$10 (+6%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $162 $162 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 73¢ 100¢ $111 $152 +$41 (+37%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $133 $141 +$8 (+6%)
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $73 $76 +$3 (+4%)
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 28¢ $102 $49 −$53 (-52%)
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 14¢ $98 $30 −$68 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $541 +$77 +14%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Switzerland vs. Canada: Jun 25 $205 +$2,042 +994%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $819 +$69 +8%
US Lecce vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $47 −$46 -99%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5) Apr 06 $177 +$9 +5%
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5) Apr 06 $297 +$8 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 02 $353 +$16 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $105 −$52 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 3? Mar 05 $128 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 1? Mar 02 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 02 $222 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Mar 02 $681 +$28 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 01 $177 +$6 +4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 01 $177 +$22 +12%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Feb 26 $129 −$129 -100%
Will the United States of America win the gold medal for Winter Olympi Feb 26 $86 +$43 +50%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 09 $77 +$17 +22%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 09 $77 +$18 +24%
FC Bayern München vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5 Feb 09 $47 +$69 +147%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-08? Feb 09 $277 +$80 +29%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 02 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Feb 02 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $1,139 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 5-11? Jan 12 $132 +$5 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 7AM ET Jan 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 5? Jan 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 05 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 05 $19 +$1 +7%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 05 $300 +$23 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $1,500 +$113 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $1,604 +$29 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 05 $1,634 +$85 +5%
Will Hyperliquid reach $60 in November? Dec 02 $62 +$19 +30%
Will Ethena reach $0.70 in November? Dec 02 $100 +$4 +4%
Will BNB reach $1400 in November? Dec 02 $381 +$61 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 02 $928 +$49 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? Dec 02 $1,440 +$60 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 06 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 06 $113 +$17 +15%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $541 +$31 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $100 +$75 +75%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 01 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 01 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 01 $385 +$115 +30%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 01 $633 +$21 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 01 $2,955 +$45 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Nov 01 $2,800 +$311 +11%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31? Oct 31 $220 −$220 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $618 1h
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $0 11h
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 19h
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 19h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 23h
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 23h
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 23h
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 23h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $43 24h
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $74 24h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $117 24h
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $73 24h
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $23 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to BUY 10¢ $205 24h
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Sta BUY Yes 71¢ $2 43h
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Sta BUY Yes 71¢ $209 44h
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Sta BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2d
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Sta BUY Yes 71¢ $6 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Switzerland vs. Canada: BUY $205 2d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $195 31d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $541 31d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $819 31d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 87¢ $1,555 31d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 90¢ $445 80d
US Lecce vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $47 80d
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 97¢ $297 85d
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5) BUY FC Barcelona 95¢ $177 85d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $133 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? BUY No 96¢ $353 115d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $111 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,956.29 · official $3,956.30 (match) · 283 history records