Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc676…f35c crypto 1100 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 121d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$190 (+1%) realized +$107 · open +$83
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate67%772W / 373L
Whale WR28%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$556
7 days−$536
14 days−$536
30 days−$540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$39
crypto 26% −$302
other 4% +$355
weather 1% −$34
tech 1% −$35
world 0% $0
finance 0% +$5
culture 0% −$5
politics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -68.9% -71.9% 15% 11% -69.5%
≤30d 78 -64.5% -67.8% 18% 12% -57.7%
≤90d 165 -32.0% -38.5% 35% 21% -10.0%
all 1145 -4.6% -13.7% 67% 34% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 34% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 21% -19.6%
15% -29.5% 12% -27.4%
20% -36.4% 10% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 28% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses772 / 373
Whale WR (big bets)28%
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1145 / 1100
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Romelu Lukaku be in Belgium's Starting 11? No 16¢ 72¢ $18 $79 +$61 (+341%)
Will Ferran Torres be in Spain's Starting 11? Yes 80¢ 69¢ $36 $31 −$5 (-13%)
Will Álex Baena be in Spain's Starting 11? Yes 44¢ 75¢ $9 $16 +$7 (+70%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brandon Mechele be in Belgium's Starting 11? No 12¢ 47¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+292%)
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 62¢ 49¢ $12 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Will Charles De Ketelaere be in Belgium's Starting 11? No 11¢ 25¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+127%)
Will Richard Ríos be in Colombia's Starting 11? No 12¢ 16¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+38%)
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will Timothy Castagne be in Belgium's Starting 11? No 14¢ 40¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+182%)
Will Thomas Meunier be in Belgium's Starting 11? No 13¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+42%)
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 26¢ 45¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+73%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in June? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 187 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ernest Jones win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Old Dominion (-16.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: UTSA (-4.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Broncos (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will TreVeyon Henderson win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Louisville (-4.5) Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Tulane (-14.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Bengals (-5.5) Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Angels vs. Rockies Jun 15 $8 −$12 -144%
Spread: Maryland (-17.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rhamondre Stevenson win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Vikings (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Women's Group A - Finland vs. Canada Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Cubs vs. Braves Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Uchenna Nwosu win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Indiana (-7.5) Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Royals vs. Guardians Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will AJ Barner win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Padres vs. Mets Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Byron Murphy win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leonard Williams win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rashid Shaheed win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Brewers vs. Rangers Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Pierceson Coody win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Georgia Tech (-14.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Women's Group A - Finland vs. Switzerland Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Spread: Kansas (-5.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Ole Miss (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: NC State (-10.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Cooper Kupp win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Coby Bryant win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Kansas State (-6.5) Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Tulane (-10.5) Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
UCF vs. Kansas State Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Ravens (-2.5) Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Texas vs. Ohio State Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Duke (-5.5) Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Georgia (-3.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Nick Emmanwori win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Devon Witherspoon win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stefon Diggs win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mack Hollins win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Christian Gonzalez win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Jun 15 $13 −$24 -186%
Spread: Stanford (-2.5) Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Kayshon Boutte win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Colts vs. Rams Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will DeMarcus Lawrence win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Iowa State (-3.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 1h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 1h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in June? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in June? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Charles De Ketelaere be in Belgium's Starting 11? SELL No 28¢ $1 9h
Will Charles De Ketelaere be in Belgium's Starting 11? SELL No 28¢ $3 9h
Will Donyell Malen be in Netherlands's Starting 11? SELL No $0 11h
Will Donyell Malen be in Netherlands's Starting 11? SELL No $0 11h
Will Ko Itakura be in Japan's Starting 11? SELL No 11¢ $1 11h
Will Ko Itakura be in Japan's Starting 11? SELL No 11¢ $1 11h
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? SELL Yes 42¢ $13 20h
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL Yes 61¢ $11 21h
Will Donyell Malen be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY No 32¢ $3 22h
Will Donyell Malen be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY No 29¢ $5 22h
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 22h
Will Romelu Lukaku be in Belgium's Starting 11? SELL No 70¢ $18 24h
Will Romelu Lukaku be in Belgium's Starting 11? SELL No 67¢ $17 26h
Will Romelu Lukaku be in Belgium's Starting 11? SELL No 64¢ $16 27h
Will Romelu Lukaku be in Belgium's Starting 11? SELL No 72¢ $18 31h
Will Danilo be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 34h
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? SELL Yes 50¢ $11 42h
Will Richard Ríos be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 12¢ $6 43h
Will Ko Itakura be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY No $5 43h
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 44h
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 44h
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 44h
Will Nathaniel Brown be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 44h
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 44h
Will Ferran Torres be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 45h
Will Ferran Torres be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.64 · official $200.64 (match) · 3500 history records