Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc672…6278 other 26 markets active 1d ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$138 (+23%) realized +$138 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$127
other 45% −$5
sports 5% +$7
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.1% -7.6% 24% 10% -10.0%
≤30d 25 +4.9% -5.1% 36% 24% -8.5%
≤90d 25 +4.9% -5.1% 36% 24% -8.5%
all 26 +6.3% -3.8% 38% 27% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 27% +10.3%
10% -13.0% 15% -0.2%
15% -21.4% 8% -9.9%
20% -29.1% 4% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×12.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.95 per $1 lost it wins $7.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage607d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $13 $0 -2%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -3%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $17 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $17 $0 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $29 −$3 -11%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +203%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $12 $0 -1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$5 -28%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$5 +35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 $0 -4%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 $0 -8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $296 +$127 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $12 24h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $13 24h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $15 24h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $16 24h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $15 24h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $15 24h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $13 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 24h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 24h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $18 26h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $19 26h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 61¢ $9 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $11 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $19 4d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $9 6d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 6d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 6d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 6d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $19 6d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records