Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C6 0xc672…895c other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$12 (+9%) realized +$11 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate50%10W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day7.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-1.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+8.6%	-1.7%	50%	35%	-4.2%
≤30d	20	+8.6%	-1.7%	50%	35%	-4.2%
≤90d	20	+8.6%	-1.7%	50%	35%	-4.2%
all	20	+8.6%	-1.7%	50%	35%	-4.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.7%	35%	-4.2%
10%	-11.1%	25%	-13.3%
15%	-19.7%	25%	-21.7%
20%	-27.6%	20%	-29.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

30% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +37% → late -19% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.21 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$24

Realized+$11

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses10 / 10

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)20 / 24

History coverage4d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day7.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+15%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$7	$7	−$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202	Jun 18	$16	+$9	+57%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$1	+$5	+442%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$15	+$1	+7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$2	$0	+20%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$3	$0	+6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$13	+$6	+48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2	+$3	+140%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	+$1	+6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$9	−$8	-89%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$10	+$2	+22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$2	+$8	+414%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202	SELL Yes	37¢	$24	1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202	BUY Yes	22¢	$16	11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	43¢	$2	12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	12¢	$16	12h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$5	22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	94¢	$3	40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	83¢	$2	2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$1	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	62¢	$1	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	56¢	$1	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	35¢	$4	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	9¢	$1	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	51¢	$2	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$5	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$10	3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$5	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	30¢	$3	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$5	3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	70¢	$7	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$8	4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	100¢	$12	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	14¢	$1	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.33 · official $24.33 (match) · 48 history records