Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:56:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C6 0xc672…c604 crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$125 (+9%) realized +$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%14W / 49L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,254
7 days+$1,286
14 days+$1,286
30 days+$1,286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$431
crypto 22% +$135
sports 20% +$1,077
economics 10% +$223
politics 7% +$224
world 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +94.1% +75.6% 22% 22% +204.3%
≤30d 32 +94.1% +75.6% 22% 22% +204.3%
≤90d 34 +82.7% +65.3% 21% 21% +184.8%
all 63 +57.3% +42.3% 22% 22% +51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.3% 22% +51.1%
10% +28.7% 21% +36.6%
15% +16.2% 21% +23.4%
20% +4.8% 21% +11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +327% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +104% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +94% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$15 · ×9.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses14 / 49
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage150d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$33 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$75 +707%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$15 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$183 +1376%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $35 +$1,124 +3251%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $27 +$31 +114%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Mar 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 15 minut Mar 04 $11 −$11 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours Mar 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Mar 04 $393 −$389 -99%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playof Jan 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute Jan 25 $5 +$22 +436%
Will Trump say "Friend of Mine" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Jan 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 23 $120 +$239 +199%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? Jan 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Jan 18 $2 −$2 -75%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win 4th place in the 1st round of the 202 Jan 18 $20 +$21 +106%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win 4th place in the 1st round of the 2026 Po Jan 18 $19 +$173 +905%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $130.00 · 155 history records