Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc670…b781 sports 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1938 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$57 (+0%) realized +$55 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate61%44W / 28L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day1938.3pace
Fees−$599est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$926now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$825
other 10% −$3
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1938 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +33.0% +20.3% 61% 12% -6.8%
≤30d 72 +33.0% +20.3% 61% 12% -6.8%
≤90d 72 +33.0% +20.3% 61% 12% -6.8%
all 72 +33.0% +20.3% 61% 12% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1938.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.3% 12% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here +8.8% 6% -15.7%
15% -1.7% 3% -23.9%
20% -11.3% 3% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$516) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +61% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
23.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$2 · ×11.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.47 per $1 lost it wins $18.47
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$926
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses44 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$599
Open positions20
Markets (closed)72 / 92
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$322
Trades / day1938.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 48¢ $111 $112 +$1 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 54¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 83¢ 82¢ $83 $82 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 78¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 70¢ 70¢ $66 $67 +$0 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 81¢ 81¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 60¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 78¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 44¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Under 33¢ 32¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Over 20¢ 20¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+2%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 22¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Ghana 18¢ 18¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Over 15¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $92 $0 -0%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $135 +$1 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $368 +$5 +1%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $516 −$2 -0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $204 $0 -0%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $179 −$2 -1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $328 +$2 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $579 +$7 +1%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $352 +$1 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $136 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $86 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $62 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $381 +$3 +1%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $579 −$2 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $470 +$4 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $244 −$4 -2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $522 −$4 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $454 $0 +0%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,148 +$5 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $547 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $666 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $386 +$2 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $116 −$1 -1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $184 −$3 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $440 $0 -0%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $166 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $123 +$1 +1%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $419 $0 -0%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $214 $0 -0%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $434 −$6 -1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $305 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $457 $0 -0%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $319 $0 +0%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $893 +$4 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $520 −$1 -0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $434 −$5 -1%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $544 −$3 -0%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $86 $0 -0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $98 −$2 -2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $296 −$4 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $147 −$1 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $236 +$2 +1%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $538 +$2 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $173 +$2 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $163 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 1m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 1m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $4 1m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $8 2m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 49¢ $19 5m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 49¢ $48 5m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 72¢ $27 5m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 72¢ $88 5m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 5m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $7 5m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 5m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 6m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $14 6m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $15 7m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $11 16m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $21 24m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $5 24m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $10 25m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $7 28m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $31 28m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 35m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 35m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $1 37m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $18 38m
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 18¢ $9 42m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 43m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 45m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $28 46m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 51m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $23 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $926.37 · official $925.30 (match) · 3500 history records