Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc66f…104c sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,479 (+13%) realized +$4,469 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$955per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$256est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$890now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,571
7 days+$5,960
14 days+$4,103
30 days+$4,103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$5,177
sports 39% −$1,376
crypto 1% +$312
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -11.9% -20.3% 44% 39% +11.8%
≤30d 35 -16.7% -24.6% 37% 34% +1.6%
≤90d 35 -16.7% -24.6% 37% 34% +1.6%
all 35 -16.7% -24.6% 37% 34% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 34% +1.6%
10% -31.8% 34% -8.1%
15% -38.4% 34% -17.0%
20% -44.4% 20% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,410) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$944 vs −$389 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$890
Realized+$4,469
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$256
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage12d
Avg bet$955
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $880 $890 +$10 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $513 −$500 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,489 +$338 +10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $306 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,515 +$757 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,515 +$724 +48%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,517 −$1,500 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,424 +$1,832 +129%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $709 +$519 +73%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $715 −$700 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,222 +$1,775 +145%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6,462 +$2,575 +40%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,432 −$125 -9%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $144 $0 +0%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,031 +$1,584 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,010 −$520 -52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $677 +$322 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,428 −$1,410 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $377 −$370 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $508 −$508 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $608 +$427 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $567 −$492 -87%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $508 +$312 +61%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $367 −$360 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $557 −$550 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1,010 +$443 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $509 +$667 +131%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $17 −$2 -10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $174 −$8 -5%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 13 $69 −$6 -8%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $256 −$21 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $410 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 80¢ $3,827 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $306 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,311 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 6h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $895 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $2,178 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,515 29h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1,517 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,515 29h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $715 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,424 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $2,997 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $9,038 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $1,308 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $144 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $3,030 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,432 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $205 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $709 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,413 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $713 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $509 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $2,019 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $490 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,021 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $890.00 · official $890.00 (match) · 68 history records