Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc66c…7c32 weather 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (191 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-2%) realized −$20 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%55W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day190.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (191 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -2.7% -12.0% 72% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 76 -2.7% -12.0% 72% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 76 -2.7% -12.0% 72% 0% -11.2%
all 76 -2.7% -12.0% 72% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover190.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 0% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 0% -19.7%
15% -28.1% 0% -27.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$361
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses55 / 21
Open positions26
Markets (closed)76 / 102
History coverage2d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day190.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 89¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? No 99¢ 97¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? No 99¢ 84¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 17? No 99¢ 97¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? No 98¢ 77¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? No 99¢ 86¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $75 −$6 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $39 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $100 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 6m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 28m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 35m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $4 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 44m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.52 · official $359.72 (match) · 492 history records