Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc66b…494b sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$193 (+2%) realized +$193 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$282
14 days−$279
30 days−$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$273
other 10% +$38
world 6% +$10
politics 3% +$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 38% -13.0%
≤30d 27 +4.7% -5.3% 56% 41% -12.7%
≤90d 33 +5.3% -4.7% 61% 39% -10.2%
all 33 +5.3% -4.7% 61% 39% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 39% -10.2%
10% -13.8% 27% -18.8%
15% -22.2% 27% -26.6%
20% -29.8% 27% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +27% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$77 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage117d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $88 +$1 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $155 −$126 -81%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $11 +$1 +12%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$3 +66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +63%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $293 −$8 -3%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -91%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$8 +74%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $300 −$295 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $880 −$273 -31%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$1 -6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,154 −$273 -24%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 −$1 -1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,155 $0 -0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +68%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $940 +$207 +22%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $912 +$27 +3%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $895 +$8 +1%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +95%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +138%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $460 +$439 +96%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +110%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +11%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $454 +$6 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $222 +$9 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 20 $4 −$1 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $362 +$3 +1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $233 +$36 +15%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 10 $309 +$161 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $87 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $89 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $88 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $93 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 15¢ $29 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $155 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 84¢ $13 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $11 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 98¢ $285 2d
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 3¢ $0 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $288 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 1¢ $5 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $300 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 65¢ $608 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $880 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 14¢ $10 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $10 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 59¢ $881 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1,154 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.48 · official $178.48 (match) · 76 history records